A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
