Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
